Relative Age in International Youth Table Tennis: Tournament Tier, Participant Composition, and Match Outcomes Across Three Seasons
Li H, Wang Y, Niu J. · Research Square · 2026
Abstract
Background: Birth-date asymmetry among youth athletes may reflect participation processes without corresponding match advantages. This study compared participant composition and match outcomes across WTT Youth Contender and Youth Star Contender competitions.
Methods: A retrospective analysis covered 158 tournament editions, 5,972 athletes and 24,606 entries in 2023–2025. Composition analysis used 11,277 athlete–season–age–sex–category units and athlete-clustered multinomial models. Paired-difference logistic models analyzed 41,657 normally completed U15/U19 singles matches, separated within-year from between-year age, and accounted for shared athletes and events.
Results: Birth-quarter distributions departed from calendar-duration expectations in four pooled strata. The overall adjusted category test was inconclusive (P = 0.129); the Q1/Q4 relative representation ratio was 1.265 (95% CI 1.025–1.561). The within-year winning OR was 1.026 (0.991–1.062) per quarter-year position, and the between-year OR was 1.296 (1.249–1.344) per birth year. Joint tests of both age dimensions supported modification by age category and sex; category and season tests were inconclusive. Birth-cohort associations persisted after partial ranking-reference adjustment.
Conclusions: Participant birth distributions and match performance should be interpreted separately. Earlier birth cohorts were associated with winning, whereas the primary within-year association was uncertain. These
results do not identify selection probabilities or causal maturation effects.