A Non-Linear Conceptual Framework for Individualized Injury Risk Assessment in Situational Sports: Systems-Based Model and Proof-of-Concept Study
Serhii Kozin, Vladimir Potop, Zhanneta Leonidovna Kozina, Oleksii Kozin, Ratko Pavlović, Ilona Mihajlović et al. · Balneo and PRM Research Journal · 2026
Background: Injury prevention in situational sports remains a major challenge due to the dynamic, unpredictable, and multifactorial nature of competitive environments. Existing injury-risk assessment approaches are predominantly based on reductionist and linear models that evaluate isolated predictors and may not adequately reflect complex interactions among multiple risk factors.
Methods: A conceptual non-linear framework for individualized injury-risk assessment was developed based on the dynamics of the logistic (sigmoid) function. The proposed model conceptualizes the athlete as a complex open biomechanical system and integrates physiological, technical, psychological, anthropometric, historical, recovery-related, and situational factors into a composite risk index (Z), which is transformed into a bounded injury probability scale (Pinjury ∈ [0,1]).
Results: The framework describes three structural phases of injury-risk progression: (1) a latent risk phase characterized by compensatory mechanisms, (2) a non-linear acceleration phase driven by synergistic interactions among risk factors, and (3) a critical saturation phase in which injury probability approaches its upper limit. The concept of a “safety window” is introduced as a practical tool for individualized monitoring and training-load management. The model provides a unified theoretical structure for integrating heterogeneous injury-related factors within a single probabilistic framework.
Conclusions: The proposed framework offers a novel conceptual basis for individualized injury-risk assessment in situational sports and may support the development of future decision-support systems for injury prevention. Although empirical validation and sport-specific calibration are required, the model establishes a theoretical foundation for future research and practical applications in sports science and sports medicine.